2014 César Awards
On January 28th, the nominations for the 40th César Awards will be revealed (check out the Academy's website).
Last year, I predicted 63 out of 103 nominees, and then 8/19 of the winners, which is quite average. Although I successfully guessed the 7 Best Actress nominees, and the 5 films up for Best Directorial Debut !
The heavy favourite "Blue is the Warmest Color" proved to be much more divisive than I expected (I'm still discussing it with friends at the moment). That, and a kind of fatigue of the buzz surrounding the film may have hurt its chances. At least, Adèle Exarchopoulos won Best Newcomer. "Stranger by the Lake" also won Best Newcomer, in the male category. But the big winner was "Me, Myself and Mum", the comedy written, directed & starring Guillaume Gallienne. With almost 3 million admissions, it's one of the biggest BO success of the last 10 years for a Best Film César, along with "The Artist" and "Of Gods and Men".
So what will be this year's surprises ?
There's no clear frontrunner, which makes for an unpredictable year. As usual, several Cannes films are in contention: "Saint Laurent", "Timbuktu" (a French co-production that just won the French BFCA), "Sils Maria" & "The Search". "Love at First Fight" also screened in Cannes although, like Guillaume last year, it was not a Competition entry. If any other film wins, it will be the first time since 2008's "Séraphine" that a Best Film César entirely skipped the Croisette.
Also worth noting is that this year sees 4 French production top the French box-office, for the first tme since 1970 ! (Those films are the 3 comedies "Serial (Bad) Weddings", "Supercondriaque", "La Famille Bélier" & Luc Besson's "Lucy").
So here we go (I left out the Short category, having not seen enough of the potential nominees; but my bet is on "Tant qu'il nous reste des fusils à pompe". And I'm still not sure if "Two Days, One Night" is eligible for all categories, or only for Foreign Film).
The 40th César Awards will be handed out on February 20th. The ceremony will be broadcast live on Canal+.
This year's host is actor/writer/director Edouard Baer and president is actor/writer/director Dany Boon ("Welcome to the Sticks", "Supercondriaque").
Don't forget to share and comment !
Arnaud (@cinecharlie)
Precursors:
UPDATED (01/28/14)
The list of nominations has been revealed. The nominees appear in green below. My predictions for the win are in red.
Overall score: 69/108 (64%), which is a little better than last year: 63/103 (61%). Unlike last year, there was no category that I entirely missed, neither entirely guessed right.
They missed:
- Entirely sunbbed: Goodbye to Language, Three Hearts, Life of Riley, The Search, Eden, L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Gemma Bovery, Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon dieu !
- No nomination for Anaïs Demoustier (Bird People, Une nouvelle amie) & Mathieu Kassovitz (Vie Sauvage, Un Illustre Inconnu).
- Only one nomination for "Samba" (the latest film from the directors of "The Intouchables").
- Radical films do not fare well with the academy (Godard & Alain Cavalier this year, Bruno Dumont in general).
Strong showings:
- "Hippocrates" in Film/Director/Actor !
- Both Yves Saint-Laurent biopics fared very well, with a leading 10 nominations for Bertrand Bonello's "Saint Laurent" & 7 for Jalil Lespert's "YSL". Both earned 3 acting nominations, while only Bonello's earned Film & Director nods.
Trivia
- For the first time since 2010, no film is nominated for all the "big five" awards (Pic/Director/Actor/Actress/Screenplay).
- "Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu?" becomes the biggest French film ever (at French box-office) to be entirely snubbed.
- Last year's acting winners Sandrine Kiberlain, Guillaume Gallienne, Adèle Haenel & Niels Arestrup are all nominated again this year.
- Let's hope "Une Nouvelle Amie" break the Ozon curse: his films got more than 30 nominations combined, but never won a single one of them.
Best Film
- "Timbuktu" is the only nominee without an acting nomination. If may be the first to win in this situation since "The Barbarian Invasions" in 2003.
- "The Bélier Family" is the only nominee without a directing nomination. If may be the first to win in this situation since "Camille Claudel" in 1988. The film can be the biggest box-office hit in this category since "Amélie" in 2001.
- All the Best Film nominees were selected in Cannes, except "The Bélier Family" & "Eastern Boys". 3 were in Competition.
Best Actor
- For the first time, two actors (Niney & Ulliel) play the same role (Yves Saint-Laurent).
- Vincent Lacoste (21) is probably the youngest nominee ever.
- Pierre Niney (25) is poised to be the youngest winner ever, beating Christophe Lambert & Tahar Rahim (28).
- Romain Duris is the only previous nominee in this category. All the others were already nominated in other acting categories.
Best Actress
- All the contenders are previous nominees, & they all have won before, except Dequenne. Only Haenel didn't win in this category (she won in Supporting).
- With Binoche, Cotillard & Deneuve, this is an all-star lineup (the 3 also have been Oscar-nominated). Only missing are the 2 Isabelle (Adjani & Huppert).
- Marion Cotillard joins Isabelle Adjani, with now 2 performances nominated for both a César & an Oscar. She may be the 1st actress nominated in this category for what is considered a Foreign Film.
- With her 13th nomination, Catherine Deneuve becomes the most nominated actress ever, and 2d performer ever (only behind Gérard Depardieu).
Best Supporting Actor
- For the first time, two actors (Renier & Gallienne) play the same role (Pierre Bergé).
Best Supporting Actress
- Kristen Stewart is the first American comedian to be nominated since Adrien Brody, who won in 2002 for "The Pianist". The last US actress to get a nomination was Julia Migenes ("Carmen"), 30 years ago. If she wins, she will be the 2d youngest winner ever in this category (after Emmanuelle Béart, but before Adèle Haenel who won last year).
Last year, I predicted 63 out of 103 nominees, and then 8/19 of the winners, which is quite average. Although I successfully guessed the 7 Best Actress nominees, and the 5 films up for Best Directorial Debut !
The heavy favourite "Blue is the Warmest Color" proved to be much more divisive than I expected (I'm still discussing it with friends at the moment). That, and a kind of fatigue of the buzz surrounding the film may have hurt its chances. At least, Adèle Exarchopoulos won Best Newcomer. "Stranger by the Lake" also won Best Newcomer, in the male category. But the big winner was "Me, Myself and Mum", the comedy written, directed & starring Guillaume Gallienne. With almost 3 million admissions, it's one of the biggest BO success of the last 10 years for a Best Film César, along with "The Artist" and "Of Gods and Men".
So what will be this year's surprises ?
There's no clear frontrunner, which makes for an unpredictable year. As usual, several Cannes films are in contention: "Saint Laurent", "Timbuktu" (a French co-production that just won the French BFCA), "Sils Maria" & "The Search". "Love at First Fight" also screened in Cannes although, like Guillaume last year, it was not a Competition entry. If any other film wins, it will be the first time since 2008's "Séraphine" that a Best Film César entirely skipped the Croisette.
Also worth noting is that this year sees 4 French production top the French box-office, for the first tme since 1970 ! (Those films are the 3 comedies "Serial (Bad) Weddings", "Supercondriaque", "La Famille Bélier" & Luc Besson's "Lucy").
So here we go (I left out the Short category, having not seen enough of the potential nominees; but my bet is on "Tant qu'il nous reste des fusils à pompe". And I'm still not sure if "Two Days, One Night" is eligible for all categories, or only for Foreign Film).
The 40th César Awards will be handed out on February 20th. The ceremony will be broadcast live on Canal+.
This year's host is actor/writer/director Edouard Baer and president is actor/writer/director Dany Boon ("Welcome to the Sticks", "Supercondriaque").
Don't forget to share and comment !
Arnaud (@cinecharlie)
Precursors:
- All categories: Lumiere Awards (French Golden Globes): www.academiedeslumieres.com
- Film: Louis Delluc Award
- Screenplay: Prix Jacques Prévert (French WGA)
- Breakthrough acting: Prix Romy Schneider/Patrick Dewaere
- (A): Angoulême - Festival du Film Francophone www.filmfrancophone.fr
- (SFCC): Syndicat Français de la Critique de Cinéma - French Film Critics www.syndicatdelacritique.com
- (G): Globes de Cristal Awards (French press) : http://globesdecristal.com/ceremonie/?page_id=1739
- (*) denotes a win.
UPDATED (01/28/14)
The list of nominations has been revealed. The nominees appear in green below. My predictions for the win are in red.
Overall score: 69/108 (64%), which is a little better than last year: 63/103 (61%). Unlike last year, there was no category that I entirely missed, neither entirely guessed right.
They missed:
- Entirely sunbbed: Goodbye to Language, Three Hearts, Life of Riley, The Search, Eden, L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Gemma Bovery, Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon dieu !
- No nomination for Anaïs Demoustier (Bird People, Une nouvelle amie) & Mathieu Kassovitz (Vie Sauvage, Un Illustre Inconnu).
- Only one nomination for "Samba" (the latest film from the directors of "The Intouchables").
- Radical films do not fare well with the academy (Godard & Alain Cavalier this year, Bruno Dumont in general).
Strong showings:
- "Hippocrates" in Film/Director/Actor !
- Both Yves Saint-Laurent biopics fared very well, with a leading 10 nominations for Bertrand Bonello's "Saint Laurent" & 7 for Jalil Lespert's "YSL". Both earned 3 acting nominations, while only Bonello's earned Film & Director nods.
Trivia
- For the first time since 2010, no film is nominated for all the "big five" awards (Pic/Director/Actor/Actress/Screenplay).
- "Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu?" becomes the biggest French film ever (at French box-office) to be entirely snubbed.
- Last year's acting winners Sandrine Kiberlain, Guillaume Gallienne, Adèle Haenel & Niels Arestrup are all nominated again this year.
- Let's hope "Une Nouvelle Amie" break the Ozon curse: his films got more than 30 nominations combined, but never won a single one of them.
Best Film
- "Timbuktu" is the only nominee without an acting nomination. If may be the first to win in this situation since "The Barbarian Invasions" in 2003.
- "The Bélier Family" is the only nominee without a directing nomination. If may be the first to win in this situation since "Camille Claudel" in 1988. The film can be the biggest box-office hit in this category since "Amélie" in 2001.
- All the Best Film nominees were selected in Cannes, except "The Bélier Family" & "Eastern Boys". 3 were in Competition.
Best Actor
- For the first time, two actors (Niney & Ulliel) play the same role (Yves Saint-Laurent).
- Vincent Lacoste (21) is probably the youngest nominee ever.
- Pierre Niney (25) is poised to be the youngest winner ever, beating Christophe Lambert & Tahar Rahim (28).
- Romain Duris is the only previous nominee in this category. All the others were already nominated in other acting categories.
Best Actress
- All the contenders are previous nominees, & they all have won before, except Dequenne. Only Haenel didn't win in this category (she won in Supporting).
- With Binoche, Cotillard & Deneuve, this is an all-star lineup (the 3 also have been Oscar-nominated). Only missing are the 2 Isabelle (Adjani & Huppert).
- Marion Cotillard joins Isabelle Adjani, with now 2 performances nominated for both a César & an Oscar. She may be the 1st actress nominated in this category for what is considered a Foreign Film.
- With her 13th nomination, Catherine Deneuve becomes the most nominated actress ever, and 2d performer ever (only behind Gérard Depardieu).
Best Supporting Actor
- For the first time, two actors (Renier & Gallienne) play the same role (Pierre Bergé).
Best Supporting Actress
- Kristen Stewart is the first American comedian to be nominated since Adrien Brody, who won in 2002 for "The Pianist". The last US actress to get a nomination was Julia Migenes ("Carmen"), 30 years ago. If she wins, she will be the 2d youngest winner ever in this category (after Emmanuelle Béart, but before Adèle Haenel who won last year).
Film (7 nominees) (5/7)
3 Coeurs (Three Hearts)
Les Combattants* (Love at First Fight) (G,A,SFCC)
La Famille Bélier (G)
Samba
Saint Laurent
Sils Maria*
Timbuktu (G,SFCC)
Alt : (Deux jours,une nuit), The Search, Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ? (Serial (Bad) Weddings), Les Héritiers, Une nouvelle amie (The New Girlfriend), Yves Saint-Laurent, Bande de filles (Girlhood) (A), Hippocrate(G,A*), Elle l'adore(A), Bird People
Et aussi: Adieu au langage (Goodbye to Language), Aimer,boire et chanter (Life of Riley), La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur (A), Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Vie sauvage, Pas son genre, Eastern Boys
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Saint Laurent
"Timbuktu" has it all: Cannes selection, Oscar nomination, box-office hit (almost 800,000 admissions), critical approval (named French Film of the Year by French critics & Lumière Awards), love from the industry (prix Daniel Toscan du Plantier & prix du Film Français for Producer of the Year), artistry & social relevance... It's hard to bet against it. It has no acting nomination & is mostly a non-French-speaking film, but this should not prevent the Academy from crowning it Best Film (see "The Barbarian Invasions" & "The Pianist"). The only true contender I could find is "Saint Laurent" which also has it all, but to a lesser degree, & lacks the "important" factor.
Réalisateur/Director (7 nominees) (4/7)
Olivier Assayas - Sils Maria
Bertrand Bonello - Saint Laurent
Michel Hazanavicius - The Search
Benoît Jacquot - 3 coeurs
Alain Resnais - Aimer, boire et chanter
Céline Sciamma - Bande de filles
Abderrahmane Sissako - Timbuktu
Alt : Jean-Luc Godard - Adieu au langage, (Luc & Jean-Pierre Dardenne - Deux jours,une nuit), Pascale Ferran - Bird People, Thomas Caillez - Les Combattants, François Ozon - Une nouvelle amie, Robin Campillo - Eastern Boys, Eric Lartigau - La Famille Bélier, Mia Hansen-Løve - Eden, Cédric Kahn - Vie sauvage, François Ozon - Une nouvelle amie
Et aussi: Lucas Belvaux - Pas son genre, André Téchiné - L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Eric Toledano & Olivier Nakache - Samba, Alain Cavalier - Le Paradis, Christophe Honoré - Métamorphoses, Mélanie Laurent - Respire, Djinn Carrénard - FLA, Mathieu Amalric - La chambre bleue, Jalil Lespert - Yves Saint-Laurent
Nominated: Thomas Lilti - Hippocrate
Will Win: Abderrahmane Sissako
Could Win: Bertrand Bonello
As much as I would love to see Céline Sciamma win here, her film missed a Best Film nod, so this scenario is virtually impossible. Also near-impossible is winning Best Director for your debut: just ask Agnès Jaoui, Cyril Collard ("Les Nuits Fauves") & Guillaume Gallienne. Better luck next time, Thomas Caillez. I think Assayas has more chance in Screenplay. So it may come down to Sissako vs Bonello. If Ulliel misses Best Actor, the Academy may want to reward "Saint Laurent" in a big way here. Other than that, Sissako is your winner.
Acteur/Leading Actor (7 nominees) (5/7)
Guillaume Canet - La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur (G)
Romain Duris - Une nouvelle amie
Mathieu Kassovitz - Vie sauvage
Fabrice Luchini - Gemma Bovery
Pierre Niney - Yves Saint-Laurent (G)
Benoît Poelvoorde - 3 coeurs
Gaspard Ulliel - Saint Laurent (G)
Alt : Pio Marmaï - Maestro, Omar Sy - Samba, Mathieu Kassovitz - Un illustre inconnu, Reda Kateb - Qui vive, Simon Abkarian - Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Jean Dujardin - La French, Jacques Gamblin - De toutes nos forces, André Dussolier - Diplomatie, Niels Arestrup - Diplomatie, Vincent Lacoste - Hippocrate
Et aussi: Raphaël Personnaz - Le temps des aveux, Mathieu Amalric - L'amour est un crime parfait, Michel Vuillermoz - Aimer,boire et chanter, Guillaume Canet - L'homme qu'on aimait trop
Nominated: Vincent Lacoste - Hippocrate
Will Win: Gaspard Ulliel
Could Win: Pierre Niney
The war of the Saint-Laurent. Niney & Ulliel have both been nominated as Newcomer (Ulliel won). So the Academy may want to reward Niney this time ? Or, they could go for the film they love the most: "Saint Laurent". I think Lacoste & Arestrup are out, just like Damiens who is a supporting character. Canet could surprise here; the film got a Screenplay nod, so it may be more loved than we think. Duris is kind of overdue, having narrowly missed the win here in 2005 for "The Beat that My Heart Skipped". Alas, I fear he won't be able to break the "Ozon curse".
Actrice/Leading Actress (7 nominees) (5/7)
Bérénice Bejo - The Search
Juliette Binoche - Sils Maria
Isabelle Carré - Marie Heurtin
Anaïs Demoustier - Une nouvelle amie
Charlotte Gainsbourg - 3 coeurs
Adèle Haenel - Les Combattants (G)
Sandrine Kiberlain - Elle l'adore (G)
Alt : (Marion Cotillard - Deux jours,une nuit (G)), Catherine Deneuve - Dans la cour, Zabou Breitman - 28 Jours, Ariane Ascaride - Les Héritiers, Céline Sallette - Géronimo, Charlotte Gainsbourg - Samba, Ronit Elkabetz - Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Anaïs Demoustier - Bird People, Isabelle Huppert - La ritournelle, Gemma Arterton - Gemma Bovery
Et aussi: Scarlett Johansson - Lucy, Karin Viard - Lulu,femme nue, Adèle Haenel - L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Leïla Bekhti - Maintenant ou jamais, Emilie Dequenne - Pas son genre (G), Adèle Exarchopoulos - Qui vive, Salomé Stévenin - Lili Rose, Aïssa Maïga - Prêt à tout (G)
Will Win: Juliette Binoche
Could Win: Adèle Haenel, Marion Cotillard
Kiberlain won in this category last year, which disadvantages her. Deneuve is the only nomination for her film: I think this nod is her reward (and allows her to claim the title for most nominated actress ever). Viard had to learn sign language and is funny in "La Famille Bélier" but, like Damiens, she's truly a supporting character. I don't see much love for Dequenne, although the film got a Screenplay nod. So it all comes down to Adèle, Juliette & Marion. Haenel won last year in Supporting, and I found her performance not as impressive as the other two, so the Academy may wait before crowning her here. Cotillard did the impossible with netting an Oscar nod for a Dardenne movie; the fact that it's considered a foreign film here is a disadvantage. I think Binoche will earn her 2d César for a showy role, maybe too much of an "actress performance" for some. This category is such a nail-biter!
Acteur dans un second rôle/Supporting Actor (3/5)
(François Damiens - La Famille Bélier (G))
Eric Elmosnino - La Famille Bélier
Guillaume Gallienne - Yves Saint-Laurent
Reda Kateb - Hippocrate (G)
Michael Lonsdale - Maestro
Alt : Tahar Rahim - Samba, Louis Garrel - Saint Laurent, Gilles Lellouche - La French, Ari Abittan - Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?, Jacques Gamblin - 28 Jours, Raphaël Personnaz - Une nouvelle amie
Nominated: Jérémie Renier - Saint Laurent
Will Win: Reda Kateb
Could Win: Louis Garrel, Guillaume Gallienne
Reda Kateb was revealed in "A Prophet", before earning his credits & accessing to more and more supporting, and finally, leading roles. "Hippocrate" is a box-office hit & truly loved by the Academy (with nods in Film, Director, Actor) so this gives Kateb the edge here. Had Guillaume Gallienne not won last year, he would be a more serious contender for his part as Pierre Bergé in "YSL". Louis Garrel could upset.
Actrice dans un second rôle/Supporting Actress (2/5)
Catherine Deneuve - L'homme qu'on aimait trop
Izia Higelin - Samba
Chiara Mastroianni - 3 coeurs
Kristen Stewart - Sils Maria
(Karin Viard - La Famille Bélier)
Alt : Chloë Moretz - Sils Maria, Annette Bening - The Search, Charlotte Le Bon - Yves Saint-Laurent, Chantal Lauby - Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?Céline Sallette - La French, Léa Seydoux - Saint Laurent, Alice Belaïdi - Maestro, Catherine Deneuve - 3 coeurs
Nominated: Marianne Denicourt - Hippocrate, Claude Gensac - Lulu,femme nue
Will Win: Kristen Stewart
Could Win: Claude Gensac
Le Bon was good in "YSL" but nothing César-worthy in my mind. Higelin won Newcomer fairly recently. I think it's between 88-year-old Claude Gensac & 25-year-old Kristen Stewart, and truly you couldn't find more different frontrunners. Gensac is mostly famous for playing Louis de Funès' wife in a variety of films. She gets a moving part in "Lulu, femme nue", that scores her first nomination! Also a first-time nominee, Stewart is the only US actress nominated in the last 30 years. She's impeccable playing Juliette Binoche's ingénue, tormented assistant in "Sils Maria". I'd go out on a limb and predict her for the win, although the sentimality factor obviously favors Gensac.
Espoir masculin/Breakthrough Actor (4/5)
Kevin Azaïs - Les Combattants
Thomas Blumenthal - La crème de la crème
Kirill Emelyanov - Eastern Boys
Pierre Rochefort - Un beau dimanche
Marc Zinga - Qu’Allah bénisse la France
Alt : Bastien Bouillon - Le beau monde, Zacharie Chasseriaud - La belle vie, Félix de Givry - Eden, Romain Depret - Vie Sauvage, Ahmed Dramé - Les Héritiers, Jean-Baptiste Lafarge - La crème de la crème, Ymanol Perset - Colt 45, Jules Ritmanic - Vie Sauvage, Fayçal Safi - L’Apôtre, Thomas Soliveres - À toute épreuve, Danil Vorobyev - Eastern Boys, Didier Michon - Fièvres
Will Win: Kevin Azaïs
Could Win: Pierre Rochefort
I's day there's almost no competition here: Azaïs is in a film the Academy LOVED & he won the Lumière Award. If he misses, I predict Rochefort.
Espoir féminin/Breakthrough Actress (4/5)
Louane Emera - La Famille Bélier
Joséphine Japy - Respire
Lou de Laâge - Respire
Ariana Rivoire - Marie Heurtin
Karidja Touré - Bande de filles
Alt : Ariane Labed - Fidelio,l'odyssée d'Alice, Alice Isaaz - La crème de la crème, Ana Girardot - Le beau monde, Soumaye Bocoum - Papa was not a Rolling Stone, Armande Boulanger - La pièce manquante, Lolita Chammah - Gaby Baby Doll, Sofia Lesaffre - Les 3 Frères:le retour, Mélodie Richard - Métamorphoses, Solène Rigot - Tonnerre, Anna Sigalevitch - Loup-Garou, Philippine Stindel - Mercuriales, Assa Sylla - Bande de filles, Ana Girardot - La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur
Will Win: Louane Emera
Could Win: Joséphine Japy, Lou de Laâge
I found her very good in "La Famille Bélier" & she already won the Lumière Award: I think this award is Louane's to lose. Unless one of the "Respire" girls upsets.
Scénario original/Original Screenplay (3/5)
Les Héritiers
Hippocrate
Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?
Sils Maria
Timbuktu
Alt : Bande de filles, Les Combattants, (Deux jours,une nuit), Saint Laurent, Eastern Boys, Party Girl, La French, Elle l'adore, Gemma Bovery, 3 coeurs, L'Apôtre, Au bord du monde
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Les Combattants
The nominees in this category are all nominated for Best Film, so you can see that as a comment on originality in French cinema (and the drought of new ideas in, let's say, Hollywood). An argument can be made for any of them. If "Timbuktu" wins big (and I think it will), this is where it can score. Sissako and co-writer newbie Kessen Tall wrote an intemporal tale on men and the absurdity of war, that could take place in any country. Outside of Reda Kateb, I think this category is also "Hippocrate"'s safest bet for a win. César Academy has no problem awarding comedy here (remember Dupontel's victory last year). "Sils Maria"'s win would be a great way to acknowledge Olivier Assayas' work (he never won). Unless the voters congratulate "La Famille Bélier" and its 6-million admissions at French box-office. Its screenplay was a collaboration between no less than 4 writers, including the film's snubbed director & previous winner Thomas Bidegain ("A Prophet", "Rust and Bone"). A win here could salute this writing method, that ironically is inspired by the US "writers' pools". But in the end, let's face it: "Les Combattants" could sweep another victory here.
Adaptation/Adapted Screenplay (2/5)
Diplomatie (Diplomacy)
(La Famille Bélier)
Samba
Une nouvelle amie
Vie sauvage
Alt.: Aimer,boire et chanter, 24 Jours, Gemma Bovery, Pas son genre, Métamorphoses, Astérix-Le Domaine des Dieux, Lulu,femme nue, L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Yves Saint-Laurent
Nominated: La Chambre Bleue, La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur
Will Win: La Chambre Bleue
Could Win: Lulu, femme nue
None of the films nominated here is up for Best Film, so this could go in a variety of directions. All of them got an acting nod though, except Mathieu Amalric's "La Chambre Bleue", but it was a Cannes selection. I think I'll go with this one, as a way of awarding Amalric in another category (he previously won Newcomer & Actor, and was up for Director). But really, it's quite rare to win Screenplay as a film's single nod, so this could go to any of them.
Décors/Production Design (4/5)
La Belle et la Bête
La French
Le Grimoire d'Arkandias
Saint Laurent
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: L'homme qu'on aimait trop, The Search, Lucy, Sils Maria, Timbuktu
Will Win: La Belle et la Bête
Could Win: Yves Saint-Laurent
Christophe Gans ("Brotherhood of the Wolf", "Silent Hill") always directs gorgeous films with strong art direction: that's why "La Belle et la Bête" seems like the frontrunner here. But Oscar-nominated Aline Bonetto (Jean-Pierre Jeunet's art director) also did great work on "YSL".
Costumes/Costume Design (4/5)
La Belle et la Bête
La French
Saint Laurent
Les Vacances du Petit Nicolas
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Une nouvelle amie, Une promesse, Pasolini, The Search, Timbuktu
Will Win: Yves Saint-Laurent
Could Win: Saint Laurent
One of the funniest awards battles of all time! The two prestige biopics about Yves Saint-Laurent compete head-to-head in the category they were designed for: Best Costumes. "YSL" has the bonus of being labelled as the "official" biopic, with a complete access to the designer's actual outfits. But "Saint Laurent" could at the same time gt extra credits for having to reinvent & manufacture a lot of the props used in the film.
Photographie/Cinematography (3/5)
La Belle et la Bête
Saint Laurent
Samba
The Search
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Lucy, Sils Maria, Une nouvelle amie, Aimer,boire et chanter
Nominated: Timbuktu
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Saint Laurent
A strong line-up. I think a "Timbuktu" win here would cement its way to Best Film victory (DP Sofian El Fani was already nominated last year for the infamous "Blue is the Warmest Color"). The DP of "YSL" won last year for Jean-Pierre Jeunet "T.S. Spivet"; I don't see him repeating. Christophe Beaucarne ("La Belle et la Bête") was nominated for "On Tour" and could upset, unless the lavish images of "Saint Laurent" win this.
Montage/Editing (3/5)
Les Combattants
Lucy
Saint Laurent
Samba
Timbuktu
Alt: Bande de filles, 3 Coeurs, Sils Maria, Une nouvelle amie, Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem
Nominated: Hippocrate, Party Girl
Will Win: Party Girl
Could Win: Les Combattants
I predict an upset & a win for "Party Girl" (the less nominated film of the bunch, with only another nod for Best Debut). Many thought that "Saint Laurent" dragged along too much, so I think its strongest competitor is the juggernaut "Les Combattants", that effectively blends different genres (comedy, drama, teen movie).
Son/Sound Design (2/5)
Bird People
Eden
La Famille Bélier
Lucy
Saint Laurent
Alt.: Yves Saint-Laurent, The Search, La Crème de la crème, Respire
Nominated: Bande de filles, Les Combattants, Timbuktu
Will Win: Bird People
Could Win: Les Combattants
"Bird People"'s sound design is impressive; here's a chance to award Pascale Ferran's film, unless "Les Combattants" wins here in the coattails of its popularity.
Musique originale/Original Score (2/5)
Bird People
La Crème de la crème
La Famille Bélier
Jack et la mécanique du coeur (The Boy with the Cuckoo-Clock Heart)
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Lucy, Saint Laurent, Samba, Le Dernier diamant, The Search, Abus de faiblesse, Des lendemains qui chantent, Eastern Boys, Hippocrate, Une nouvelle amie
Nominated: Bande de filles, Les Combattants, Timbuktu
Will Win: Bande de filles
Could Win: Les Combattants
I keep switching between "Bande de Filles" & "Les Combattants". Those two scores were pretty great & really enhanced the experience of watching their respective films in theaters. I regret missing those two in my nomination predictions! I'll go for Céline Sciamma's film given that, unlike "Combattants", this could be its only chance at winning anything. But don't count out Ibrahim Maalouf's "star power" with his score for "Yves Saint-Laurent".
Premier film/Directorial Debut Film (4/5)
Les Combattants*
Elle l'adore
Party Girl
Qu'Allah bénisse la France (A)
Tonnerre
Alt.: Tristesse Club, Babysitting, Mercuriales, Mille soleils, Mouton, Sous les jupes des filles (French Girls), Chante ton bac d'abord, L'Armée du salut, Fidelio,l'odyssée d'Alice, Terre Battue
Will Win: Les Combattants
Could Win: Party Girl (but not really)
Sorry guys, no competition here! With 9 nods, "Les Combattants" is one of the most nominated debut of all time (just behind last year's "Guillaume" & his 10 noms), and only "Elle l'adore" beats it at the box-office. "Party Girl" won Best Debut in Cannes over it, but well, not a strong argument.
Film d’animation/Animated Feature Film (3/3)
Astérix - Le Domaine des Dieux
Jack et la mécanique du coeur
Minuscule - La vallée des fourmis perdues
Le Chant de la Mer (Song of the Sea)
Tante Hilda !
Will Win: Minuscule
Could Win: Jack et la mécanique du coeur
I think The Oscar-nominated "Song of the Sea" doesn't have a strong chance here, so the battle should be between the bugs of "Minsucule" and the cuckoo-clocks of "Jack". "Minuscule" being the biggest hit, I bet on it.
Film documentaire/Documentary Feature (2/5)
Au bord du monde
Chante ton bac d'abord
La Cour de Babel
Of Men and War
Le Sel de la Terre (The Salt of the Earth)
Alt.: Terre des ours, National Gallery, Pôle Emploi, ne quittez pas, Les Gens du monde
Nominated: Caricaturistes-fantassins de la démocratie, Les Chèvres de ma mère
Will Win: La Cour de Babel
Could Win: Caricaturistes
Another very strong category. Julie Bertucelli already won Best Debut in 2003, and her documentary "La Cour de Babel" was a hit here in France. I give her the edge, but the idea of awarding Frederick Wiseman ("National Gallery"), Wim Wenders ("The Salt of the Earth") or the sadly topical "Caricaturistes" (about Charlie Hebdo) is strong too.
Film étranger/Film from a foreign country (7 nominees, including 2 French-speaking films) (5/7)
Boyhood
Deux jours, une nuit (Two days, one night)
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Leviathan
Mommy (A)
Winter Sleep
Alt.: Ida, Her, Black Coal, Gone Girl, L'institutrice, Nymphomaniac, Tom à la ferme (Tom at the farm), Fièvres, L'Oranais(A), Run
Nominated: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Mommy
Could Win: Deux jours, une nuit
What a lineup! Every nominee here is outstanding. But I think that, for the first time ever, the winner will be one of the 2 French-language entries. Xavier Dolan's "Mommy" is an incredible success here in France (with over 1 million admissions, it's the biggest success ever for a Canadian film, just behind "The Barbarian Invasions", who incidentally won the César for Best Film in 2003). Its Cannes Jury prize and overwhelming critical & mediatic reception make him a strong bet. But the Dardenne brothers also released a strong film ("Two Days, One Night"), another Cannes contender, starring a nominated actress (Marion Cotillard). To get a nomination outside the foreign category is incredibly rare (it only happened once before with Kacey Mottet Klein nominated for Best Newcomer in 2012 for "Sister', a minimal French co-production). Will the Academy finally award 25-year-old Dolan or veteran Dardenne Bros ? Both have been nominated 4 times in this category. (The Dardenne were also nominated for Screenplay, Director & Best Film for "The Child" in 2005). It's a toss-up!
Honorary Award: Sean Penn
Prix Daniel Toscan du Plantier - Best Producer: Syvie Pialat (Timbuktu)
3 Coeurs (Three Hearts)
Les Combattants* (Love at First Fight) (G,A,SFCC)
La Famille Bélier (G)
Samba
Saint Laurent
Sils Maria*
Timbuktu (G,SFCC)
Alt : (Deux jours,une nuit), The Search, Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ? (Serial (Bad) Weddings), Les Héritiers, Une nouvelle amie (The New Girlfriend), Yves Saint-Laurent, Bande de filles (Girlhood) (A), Hippocrate(G,A*), Elle l'adore(A), Bird People
Et aussi: Adieu au langage (Goodbye to Language), Aimer,boire et chanter (Life of Riley), La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur (A), Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Vie sauvage, Pas son genre, Eastern Boys
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Saint Laurent
"Timbuktu" has it all: Cannes selection, Oscar nomination, box-office hit (almost 800,000 admissions), critical approval (named French Film of the Year by French critics & Lumière Awards), love from the industry (prix Daniel Toscan du Plantier & prix du Film Français for Producer of the Year), artistry & social relevance... It's hard to bet against it. It has no acting nomination & is mostly a non-French-speaking film, but this should not prevent the Academy from crowning it Best Film (see "The Barbarian Invasions" & "The Pianist"). The only true contender I could find is "Saint Laurent" which also has it all, but to a lesser degree, & lacks the "important" factor.
Réalisateur/Director (7 nominees) (4/7)
Olivier Assayas - Sils Maria
Bertrand Bonello - Saint Laurent
Michel Hazanavicius - The Search
Benoît Jacquot - 3 coeurs
Alain Resnais - Aimer, boire et chanter
Céline Sciamma - Bande de filles
Abderrahmane Sissako - Timbuktu
Alt : Jean-Luc Godard - Adieu au langage, (Luc & Jean-Pierre Dardenne - Deux jours,une nuit), Pascale Ferran - Bird People, Thomas Caillez - Les Combattants, François Ozon - Une nouvelle amie, Robin Campillo - Eastern Boys, Eric Lartigau - La Famille Bélier, Mia Hansen-Løve - Eden, Cédric Kahn - Vie sauvage, François Ozon - Une nouvelle amie
Et aussi: Lucas Belvaux - Pas son genre, André Téchiné - L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Eric Toledano & Olivier Nakache - Samba, Alain Cavalier - Le Paradis, Christophe Honoré - Métamorphoses, Mélanie Laurent - Respire, Djinn Carrénard - FLA, Mathieu Amalric - La chambre bleue, Jalil Lespert - Yves Saint-Laurent
Nominated: Thomas Lilti - Hippocrate
Will Win: Abderrahmane Sissako
Could Win: Bertrand Bonello
As much as I would love to see Céline Sciamma win here, her film missed a Best Film nod, so this scenario is virtually impossible. Also near-impossible is winning Best Director for your debut: just ask Agnès Jaoui, Cyril Collard ("Les Nuits Fauves") & Guillaume Gallienne. Better luck next time, Thomas Caillez. I think Assayas has more chance in Screenplay. So it may come down to Sissako vs Bonello. If Ulliel misses Best Actor, the Academy may want to reward "Saint Laurent" in a big way here. Other than that, Sissako is your winner.
Acteur/Leading Actor (7 nominees) (5/7)
Guillaume Canet - La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur (G)
Romain Duris - Une nouvelle amie
Mathieu Kassovitz - Vie sauvage
Fabrice Luchini - Gemma Bovery
Pierre Niney - Yves Saint-Laurent (G)
Benoît Poelvoorde - 3 coeurs
Gaspard Ulliel - Saint Laurent (G)
Alt : Pio Marmaï - Maestro, Omar Sy - Samba, Mathieu Kassovitz - Un illustre inconnu, Reda Kateb - Qui vive, Simon Abkarian - Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Jean Dujardin - La French, Jacques Gamblin - De toutes nos forces, André Dussolier - Diplomatie, Niels Arestrup - Diplomatie, Vincent Lacoste - Hippocrate
Et aussi: Raphaël Personnaz - Le temps des aveux, Mathieu Amalric - L'amour est un crime parfait, Michel Vuillermoz - Aimer,boire et chanter, Guillaume Canet - L'homme qu'on aimait trop
Nominated: Vincent Lacoste - Hippocrate
Will Win: Gaspard Ulliel
Could Win: Pierre Niney
The war of the Saint-Laurent. Niney & Ulliel have both been nominated as Newcomer (Ulliel won). So the Academy may want to reward Niney this time ? Or, they could go for the film they love the most: "Saint Laurent". I think Lacoste & Arestrup are out, just like Damiens who is a supporting character. Canet could surprise here; the film got a Screenplay nod, so it may be more loved than we think. Duris is kind of overdue, having narrowly missed the win here in 2005 for "The Beat that My Heart Skipped". Alas, I fear he won't be able to break the "Ozon curse".
Actrice/Leading Actress (7 nominees) (5/7)
Bérénice Bejo - The Search
Juliette Binoche - Sils Maria
Isabelle Carré - Marie Heurtin
Anaïs Demoustier - Une nouvelle amie
Charlotte Gainsbourg - 3 coeurs
Adèle Haenel - Les Combattants (G)
Sandrine Kiberlain - Elle l'adore (G)
Alt : (Marion Cotillard - Deux jours,une nuit (G)), Catherine Deneuve - Dans la cour, Zabou Breitman - 28 Jours, Ariane Ascaride - Les Héritiers, Céline Sallette - Géronimo, Charlotte Gainsbourg - Samba, Ronit Elkabetz - Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem, Anaïs Demoustier - Bird People, Isabelle Huppert - La ritournelle, Gemma Arterton - Gemma Bovery
Et aussi: Scarlett Johansson - Lucy, Karin Viard - Lulu,femme nue, Adèle Haenel - L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Leïla Bekhti - Maintenant ou jamais, Emilie Dequenne - Pas son genre (G), Adèle Exarchopoulos - Qui vive, Salomé Stévenin - Lili Rose, Aïssa Maïga - Prêt à tout (G)
Will Win: Juliette Binoche
Could Win: Adèle Haenel, Marion Cotillard
Kiberlain won in this category last year, which disadvantages her. Deneuve is the only nomination for her film: I think this nod is her reward (and allows her to claim the title for most nominated actress ever). Viard had to learn sign language and is funny in "La Famille Bélier" but, like Damiens, she's truly a supporting character. I don't see much love for Dequenne, although the film got a Screenplay nod. So it all comes down to Adèle, Juliette & Marion. Haenel won last year in Supporting, and I found her performance not as impressive as the other two, so the Academy may wait before crowning her here. Cotillard did the impossible with netting an Oscar nod for a Dardenne movie; the fact that it's considered a foreign film here is a disadvantage. I think Binoche will earn her 2d César for a showy role, maybe too much of an "actress performance" for some. This category is such a nail-biter!
Acteur dans un second rôle/Supporting Actor (3/5)
(François Damiens - La Famille Bélier (G))
Eric Elmosnino - La Famille Bélier
Guillaume Gallienne - Yves Saint-Laurent
Reda Kateb - Hippocrate (G)
Michael Lonsdale - Maestro
Alt : Tahar Rahim - Samba, Louis Garrel - Saint Laurent, Gilles Lellouche - La French, Ari Abittan - Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?, Jacques Gamblin - 28 Jours, Raphaël Personnaz - Une nouvelle amie
Nominated: Jérémie Renier - Saint Laurent
Will Win: Reda Kateb
Could Win: Louis Garrel, Guillaume Gallienne
Reda Kateb was revealed in "A Prophet", before earning his credits & accessing to more and more supporting, and finally, leading roles. "Hippocrate" is a box-office hit & truly loved by the Academy (with nods in Film, Director, Actor) so this gives Kateb the edge here. Had Guillaume Gallienne not won last year, he would be a more serious contender for his part as Pierre Bergé in "YSL". Louis Garrel could upset.
Actrice dans un second rôle/Supporting Actress (2/5)
Catherine Deneuve - L'homme qu'on aimait trop
Izia Higelin - Samba
Chiara Mastroianni - 3 coeurs
Kristen Stewart - Sils Maria
(Karin Viard - La Famille Bélier)
Alt : Chloë Moretz - Sils Maria, Annette Bening - The Search, Charlotte Le Bon - Yves Saint-Laurent, Chantal Lauby - Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?Céline Sallette - La French, Léa Seydoux - Saint Laurent, Alice Belaïdi - Maestro, Catherine Deneuve - 3 coeurs
Nominated: Marianne Denicourt - Hippocrate, Claude Gensac - Lulu,femme nue
Will Win: Kristen Stewart
Could Win: Claude Gensac
Le Bon was good in "YSL" but nothing César-worthy in my mind. Higelin won Newcomer fairly recently. I think it's between 88-year-old Claude Gensac & 25-year-old Kristen Stewart, and truly you couldn't find more different frontrunners. Gensac is mostly famous for playing Louis de Funès' wife in a variety of films. She gets a moving part in "Lulu, femme nue", that scores her first nomination! Also a first-time nominee, Stewart is the only US actress nominated in the last 30 years. She's impeccable playing Juliette Binoche's ingénue, tormented assistant in "Sils Maria". I'd go out on a limb and predict her for the win, although the sentimality factor obviously favors Gensac.
Espoir masculin/Breakthrough Actor (4/5)
Kevin Azaïs - Les Combattants
Thomas Blumenthal - La crème de la crème
Kirill Emelyanov - Eastern Boys
Pierre Rochefort - Un beau dimanche
Marc Zinga - Qu’Allah bénisse la France
Alt : Bastien Bouillon - Le beau monde, Zacharie Chasseriaud - La belle vie, Félix de Givry - Eden, Romain Depret - Vie Sauvage, Ahmed Dramé - Les Héritiers, Jean-Baptiste Lafarge - La crème de la crème, Ymanol Perset - Colt 45, Jules Ritmanic - Vie Sauvage, Fayçal Safi - L’Apôtre, Thomas Soliveres - À toute épreuve, Danil Vorobyev - Eastern Boys, Didier Michon - Fièvres
Will Win: Kevin Azaïs
Could Win: Pierre Rochefort
I's day there's almost no competition here: Azaïs is in a film the Academy LOVED & he won the Lumière Award. If he misses, I predict Rochefort.
Espoir féminin/Breakthrough Actress (4/5)
Louane Emera - La Famille Bélier
Joséphine Japy - Respire
Lou de Laâge - Respire
Ariana Rivoire - Marie Heurtin
Karidja Touré - Bande de filles
Alt : Ariane Labed - Fidelio,l'odyssée d'Alice, Alice Isaaz - La crème de la crème, Ana Girardot - Le beau monde, Soumaye Bocoum - Papa was not a Rolling Stone, Armande Boulanger - La pièce manquante, Lolita Chammah - Gaby Baby Doll, Sofia Lesaffre - Les 3 Frères:le retour, Mélodie Richard - Métamorphoses, Solène Rigot - Tonnerre, Anna Sigalevitch - Loup-Garou, Philippine Stindel - Mercuriales, Assa Sylla - Bande de filles, Ana Girardot - La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur
Will Win: Louane Emera
Could Win: Joséphine Japy, Lou de Laâge
I found her very good in "La Famille Bélier" & she already won the Lumière Award: I think this award is Louane's to lose. Unless one of the "Respire" girls upsets.
Scénario original/Original Screenplay (3/5)
Les Héritiers
Hippocrate
Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon Dieu ?
Sils Maria
Timbuktu
Alt : Bande de filles, Les Combattants, (Deux jours,une nuit), Saint Laurent, Eastern Boys, Party Girl, La French, Elle l'adore, Gemma Bovery, 3 coeurs, L'Apôtre, Au bord du monde
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Les Combattants
The nominees in this category are all nominated for Best Film, so you can see that as a comment on originality in French cinema (and the drought of new ideas in, let's say, Hollywood). An argument can be made for any of them. If "Timbuktu" wins big (and I think it will), this is where it can score. Sissako and co-writer newbie Kessen Tall wrote an intemporal tale on men and the absurdity of war, that could take place in any country. Outside of Reda Kateb, I think this category is also "Hippocrate"'s safest bet for a win. César Academy has no problem awarding comedy here (remember Dupontel's victory last year). "Sils Maria"'s win would be a great way to acknowledge Olivier Assayas' work (he never won). Unless the voters congratulate "La Famille Bélier" and its 6-million admissions at French box-office. Its screenplay was a collaboration between no less than 4 writers, including the film's snubbed director & previous winner Thomas Bidegain ("A Prophet", "Rust and Bone"). A win here could salute this writing method, that ironically is inspired by the US "writers' pools". But in the end, let's face it: "Les Combattants" could sweep another victory here.
Adaptation/Adapted Screenplay (2/5)
Diplomatie (Diplomacy)
(La Famille Bélier)
Samba
Une nouvelle amie
Vie sauvage
Alt.: Aimer,boire et chanter, 24 Jours, Gemma Bovery, Pas son genre, Métamorphoses, Astérix-Le Domaine des Dieux, Lulu,femme nue, L'homme qu'on aimait trop, Yves Saint-Laurent
Nominated: La Chambre Bleue, La prochaine fois je viserai le coeur
Will Win: La Chambre Bleue
Could Win: Lulu, femme nue
None of the films nominated here is up for Best Film, so this could go in a variety of directions. All of them got an acting nod though, except Mathieu Amalric's "La Chambre Bleue", but it was a Cannes selection. I think I'll go with this one, as a way of awarding Amalric in another category (he previously won Newcomer & Actor, and was up for Director). But really, it's quite rare to win Screenplay as a film's single nod, so this could go to any of them.
Décors/Production Design (4/5)
La Belle et la Bête
La French
Le Grimoire d'Arkandias
Saint Laurent
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: L'homme qu'on aimait trop, The Search, Lucy, Sils Maria, Timbuktu
Will Win: La Belle et la Bête
Could Win: Yves Saint-Laurent
Christophe Gans ("Brotherhood of the Wolf", "Silent Hill") always directs gorgeous films with strong art direction: that's why "La Belle et la Bête" seems like the frontrunner here. But Oscar-nominated Aline Bonetto (Jean-Pierre Jeunet's art director) also did great work on "YSL".
Costumes/Costume Design (4/5)
La Belle et la Bête
La French
Saint Laurent
Les Vacances du Petit Nicolas
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Une nouvelle amie, Une promesse, Pasolini, The Search, Timbuktu
Will Win: Yves Saint-Laurent
Could Win: Saint Laurent
One of the funniest awards battles of all time! The two prestige biopics about Yves Saint-Laurent compete head-to-head in the category they were designed for: Best Costumes. "YSL" has the bonus of being labelled as the "official" biopic, with a complete access to the designer's actual outfits. But "Saint Laurent" could at the same time gt extra credits for having to reinvent & manufacture a lot of the props used in the film.
Photographie/Cinematography (3/5)
La Belle et la Bête
Saint Laurent
Samba
The Search
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Lucy, Sils Maria, Une nouvelle amie, Aimer,boire et chanter
Nominated: Timbuktu
Will Win: Timbuktu
Could Win: Saint Laurent
A strong line-up. I think a "Timbuktu" win here would cement its way to Best Film victory (DP Sofian El Fani was already nominated last year for the infamous "Blue is the Warmest Color"). The DP of "YSL" won last year for Jean-Pierre Jeunet "T.S. Spivet"; I don't see him repeating. Christophe Beaucarne ("La Belle et la Bête") was nominated for "On Tour" and could upset, unless the lavish images of "Saint Laurent" win this.
Montage/Editing (3/5)
Les Combattants
Lucy
Saint Laurent
Samba
Timbuktu
Alt: Bande de filles, 3 Coeurs, Sils Maria, Une nouvelle amie, Gett-Le Procès de Viviane Emsalem
Nominated: Hippocrate, Party Girl
Will Win: Party Girl
Could Win: Les Combattants
I predict an upset & a win for "Party Girl" (the less nominated film of the bunch, with only another nod for Best Debut). Many thought that "Saint Laurent" dragged along too much, so I think its strongest competitor is the juggernaut "Les Combattants", that effectively blends different genres (comedy, drama, teen movie).
Son/Sound Design (2/5)
Bird People
Eden
La Famille Bélier
Lucy
Saint Laurent
Alt.: Yves Saint-Laurent, The Search, La Crème de la crème, Respire
Nominated: Bande de filles, Les Combattants, Timbuktu
Will Win: Bird People
Could Win: Les Combattants
"Bird People"'s sound design is impressive; here's a chance to award Pascale Ferran's film, unless "Les Combattants" wins here in the coattails of its popularity.
Musique originale/Original Score (2/5)
Bird People
La Crème de la crème
La Famille Bélier
Jack et la mécanique du coeur (The Boy with the Cuckoo-Clock Heart)
Yves Saint-Laurent
Alt.: Lucy, Saint Laurent, Samba, Le Dernier diamant, The Search, Abus de faiblesse, Des lendemains qui chantent, Eastern Boys, Hippocrate, Une nouvelle amie
Nominated: Bande de filles, Les Combattants, Timbuktu
Will Win: Bande de filles
Could Win: Les Combattants
I keep switching between "Bande de Filles" & "Les Combattants". Those two scores were pretty great & really enhanced the experience of watching their respective films in theaters. I regret missing those two in my nomination predictions! I'll go for Céline Sciamma's film given that, unlike "Combattants", this could be its only chance at winning anything. But don't count out Ibrahim Maalouf's "star power" with his score for "Yves Saint-Laurent".
Premier film/Directorial Debut Film (4/5)
Les Combattants*
Elle l'adore
Party Girl
Qu'Allah bénisse la France (A)
Tonnerre
Alt.: Tristesse Club, Babysitting, Mercuriales, Mille soleils, Mouton, Sous les jupes des filles (French Girls), Chante ton bac d'abord, L'Armée du salut, Fidelio,l'odyssée d'Alice, Terre Battue
Will Win: Les Combattants
Could Win: Party Girl (but not really)
Sorry guys, no competition here! With 9 nods, "Les Combattants" is one of the most nominated debut of all time (just behind last year's "Guillaume" & his 10 noms), and only "Elle l'adore" beats it at the box-office. "Party Girl" won Best Debut in Cannes over it, but well, not a strong argument.
Film d’animation/Animated Feature Film (3/3)
Astérix - Le Domaine des Dieux
Jack et la mécanique du coeur
Minuscule - La vallée des fourmis perdues
Le Chant de la Mer (Song of the Sea)
Tante Hilda !
Will Win: Minuscule
Could Win: Jack et la mécanique du coeur
I think The Oscar-nominated "Song of the Sea" doesn't have a strong chance here, so the battle should be between the bugs of "Minsucule" and the cuckoo-clocks of "Jack". "Minuscule" being the biggest hit, I bet on it.
Film documentaire/Documentary Feature (2/5)
Au bord du monde
Chante ton bac d'abord
La Cour de Babel
Of Men and War
Le Sel de la Terre (The Salt of the Earth)
Alt.: Terre des ours, National Gallery, Pôle Emploi, ne quittez pas, Les Gens du monde
Nominated: Caricaturistes-fantassins de la démocratie, Les Chèvres de ma mère
Will Win: La Cour de Babel
Could Win: Caricaturistes
Another very strong category. Julie Bertucelli already won Best Debut in 2003, and her documentary "La Cour de Babel" was a hit here in France. I give her the edge, but the idea of awarding Frederick Wiseman ("National Gallery"), Wim Wenders ("The Salt of the Earth") or the sadly topical "Caricaturistes" (about Charlie Hebdo) is strong too.
Film étranger/Film from a foreign country (7 nominees, including 2 French-speaking films) (5/7)
Boyhood
Deux jours, une nuit (Two days, one night)
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Leviathan
Mommy (A)
Winter Sleep
Alt.: Ida, Her, Black Coal, Gone Girl, L'institutrice, Nymphomaniac, Tom à la ferme (Tom at the farm), Fièvres, L'Oranais(A), Run
Nominated: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Mommy
Could Win: Deux jours, une nuit
What a lineup! Every nominee here is outstanding. But I think that, for the first time ever, the winner will be one of the 2 French-language entries. Xavier Dolan's "Mommy" is an incredible success here in France (with over 1 million admissions, it's the biggest success ever for a Canadian film, just behind "The Barbarian Invasions", who incidentally won the César for Best Film in 2003). Its Cannes Jury prize and overwhelming critical & mediatic reception make him a strong bet. But the Dardenne brothers also released a strong film ("Two Days, One Night"), another Cannes contender, starring a nominated actress (Marion Cotillard). To get a nomination outside the foreign category is incredibly rare (it only happened once before with Kacey Mottet Klein nominated for Best Newcomer in 2012 for "Sister', a minimal French co-production). Will the Academy finally award 25-year-old Dolan or veteran Dardenne Bros ? Both have been nominated 4 times in this category. (The Dardenne were also nominated for Screenplay, Director & Best Film for "The Child" in 2005). It's a toss-up!
Honorary Award: Sean Penn
Prix Daniel Toscan du Plantier - Best Producer: Syvie Pialat (Timbuktu)
