Best Picture Calendar: December
Welcome to the late fourth installment of Best Picture Calendar, a monthly fixture at "The Campaign" which will preview (Or in this late case review) the month's film offerings with a chance of Oscar attention. December sees the release of Spielberg's War Horse, Daldry's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Jason Reitman's Young Adult.
Young Adult
The last time Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody collaborated on a film, it produced Juno. Juno was a film which went on to get nominations for Best Picture, Director, Actress and Original Screenplay, being seen as a potential dark horse winner due to its light touch in a dark year. Starring Oscar winner Charlize Theron, Young Adult is about a woman returning to her childhood town to get back her childhood sweetheart, a man who is now married with a child. However due to never properly growing up from high school, the character of Charlize Theron believes that she can win him back, the way she would ten to twenty years prior. Young Adult has been getting good reviews from the critics who have praised it for its brave style of comedy. It is a film that will be seen by the Academy due to those behind and infront of the camera, while it may not get the 5% necessary to be up in the Best Picture category, I believe Actress, Screenplay and Supporting Actor nominations are very likely here. Diablo Cody won for Juno and if the dialogue in Young Adult sparkles the way it did in that film then she will most likely get another trip to the Kodak, while with many critics claiming it is her best performance since her Oscar winning turn in Monster, Theron may be able to take her status, looks and of course her performance to break into a tough yet fluid Best Actress category. Patton Oswalt has been a favourite of the critics and in a very open Supporting Actor category he may even be a potential winner if his performance is everything it is being cracked up to be, just how Juno was a dark horse potential winner due to the way it stood out compared to the films it was against, Oswalt may be the same due to the way he stands out in the film that he is in.
Final Verdict: Original Screenplay, Actress and Supporting Actor are safe bets for this film, as at the end of the day those will probably the elements of the film that everyone can agree on, with the fact that its a comedy (And a supposedly tough one at that) stopping it from getting that 5%
Final Verdict: Original Screenplay, Actress and Supporting Actor are safe bets for this film, as at the end of the day those will probably the elements of the film that everyone can agree on, with the fact that its a comedy (And a supposedly tough one at that) stopping it from getting that 5%
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Last year David Fincher's The Social Network swept the critics awards and the Golden Globes before The King's Speech ultimately took the Oscar. Fincher is not keen to be back on the awards circuit again this year proclaiming (With glee I imagine) that his remake/re-imagining of The Girl with Dragon Tattoo has "too much anal rape" to be a contender. Based on the best selling book, Fincher's film is said to be more of an adaptation of that original source material rather than a remake of the Swedish film. Rooney Mara stars as Lisbeth Salander and Daniel Craig fills in the role of Mikael Blomkvist as they investigate the disappearance/murder of a girl named Harriet forty years prior. Being a David Fincher film this is one I cannot wait to see, the film has been in the news for the wrong and right reasons recently due to a critic who shall not be named breaking the embargo placed upon those who attended early screenings. While his review was positive it led to another debate about film promotion and film criticism in the 21st century, with oddly the most insightful comments coming from Fincher himself, rather than the critics. Ultimately when the reviews come out officially next week the response will be positive but like The Social Network this is a critics film. Some of tried to paint this film as like The Departed some years ago, while I do not believe this film will replicate the success of that film (Mainly as it does not have the Scorsese narrative behind it) if this film can light up the box office then it may become more of a contender than Fincher wants and/or expects it to be. I cannot wait to see it on the big screen and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross from what I have heard will certainly be headed to the Kodak again for a score which indicates they are now two of the best in the business.
Final Verdict: As Fincher predicts the film will probably be too edgy to score a Best Picture nod, however a lone director nomination for Fincher is a possibility, as well as an Actress nomination for Rooney Mara. Ultimately the safest bets for a nomination for this film probably lie in the tech categories, Original Score, Editing and Cinematography.
Final Verdict: As Fincher predicts the film will probably be too edgy to score a Best Picture nod, however a lone director nomination for Fincher is a possibility, as well as an Actress nomination for Rooney Mara. Ultimately the safest bets for a nomination for this film probably lie in the tech categories, Original Score, Editing and Cinematography.
War Horse
Since the last Oscar ceremony finished, this film has been the default frontrunner for many Oscar pundits and it is easy to see why. Steven Spielberg, World War One, inspirational story of survival, big budget spectacle, heart string pulling, old fashioned, grand filmmaking. Early screenings of the film elicited generally positive reactions (Read more on those here) with reports of applause at Academy screenings. This is a film which could be HUGE at the box office come Christmas time, especially if it becomes the spectacle, crowd-pleaser that the Broadway play currently is. With that box office War Horse could become a juggernaut and be leading when nomination time comes around. Whether it will make past the last hurdle is another question (Could it peak too early and backlash be setting in when voting time comes around?) but there is no doubting that the film ticks every Oscar box. Expect nominations for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score, Art Direction, Editing, Costume, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
Final Verdict: Reaction from early screenings may have made people doubt if the film can win but not doubt that this film may be the nomination leader.
Final Verdict: Reaction from early screenings may have made people doubt if the film can win but not doubt that this film may be the nomination leader.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
December sees not the release of one obvious "Oscar Bait" film (See above) but two, with Stephen Daldry's Extremely Loud, jostling with Spielberg's War Horse for most "Oscary" film of this month. Starring Oscar winners and Hollywood darlings Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock, this film focuses on a young boy (Played by Thomas Horn) who discovers a key in his fathers closet, a father who died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Based on a book, it is reported that even the screenplay of this film had people in tears, with reactions from early screenings stating that for some, one box of tissues may not be enough. As Stephen Daldry has got Best Director and Picture nominations for every film he has made+the stars involved+the story, it is reported that producer Scott Rudin believes he has a gem on his hands with this film. Like War Horse, this is a film which could easily capture the box office and become the people's choice, with it also being a film that critics will neither trash nor overly celebrate, meaning that it will not arrive to Oscar voters with any critical baggage whether that be positive (The Artist) or negative (J. Edgar). Early reviews are also highlighting the performance of Max Von Sydow, another actor who could break into and dominate a very open Supporting Actor category.
Final Verdict: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and perhaps Editing and Original Score nominations are all likely for this film, which given the exposure already gifted to other contenders, could be the sleeping giant of this Oscar season.
Final Verdict: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and perhaps Editing and Original Score nominations are all likely for this film, which given the exposure already gifted to other contenders, could be the sleeping giant of this Oscar season.
December's Best Bets
Best Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse
Best Director: Stephen Daldry and Steven Spielberg
Best Actress: Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Supporting Actor: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) and Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Original Screenplay: Young Adult
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse
Original Score: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse
Editing/Cinematography: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse
Art Direction/Costume/Sound Editing/Sound Mixing: War Horse
What do you think? Can Young Adult get a Best Picture nod? Will Extremely Loud and War Horse be the crowd-pleasing box office hits I am predicting? Can Fincher get a Director nod for Dragon Tattoo? Give us all your thoughts on the Oscar potential of the December releases in the Your Say section.
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Director: Stephen Daldry and Steven Spielberg
Best Actress: Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Supporting Actor: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) and Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Original Screenplay: Young Adult
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse
Original Score: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse
Editing/Cinematography: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse
Art Direction/Costume/Sound Editing/Sound Mixing: War Horse
What do you think? Can Young Adult get a Best Picture nod? Will Extremely Loud and War Horse be the crowd-pleasing box office hits I am predicting? Can Fincher get a Director nod for Dragon Tattoo? Give us all your thoughts on the Oscar potential of the December releases in the Your Say section.
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Picture Calendar: November
Welcome to a third installment of Best Picture Calendar, a monthly fixture at "The Campaign" which will preview the month's film offerings with a likely chance of some Oscar attention. November sees the release of films by Clint Eastwood, Martin Scorsese, David Cronenberg and Alexander Payne, as well as a silent black and white throwback to the golden age of Hollywood. November is the month when the Oscar race really starts....
J. Edgar
Out of all the films being heavily tipped for Oscar recognition, J. Edgar is along with War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, one of the films most dripping in Oscar bait. Directed by Clint Eastwood and starring Leonardo Dicaprio, Judi Dench, Naoimi Watts and Armie Hammer, J. Edgar is about the infamous J. Edgar Hoover and could potentially showcase one of the finest performances of the year. Dicaprio is an actor who over the years I have begun to depend on to deliver great performances in great films (Inception, Shutter Island, Revolutionary Road, The Departed, The Aviator etc.) Eastwood on the other hand is a director whose films I have found to be of a lesser quality than most critics care to admit, with Million Dollar Baby being an incredibly overrated film, Changeling, Letters from Iwo Jima and Gran Torino however were all among the best films of their respective years and if J. Edgar is of that quality then it will be a force to be reckoned with. The possibility of this film being another Hereafter in terms of Oscar recognition is unlikely but not be ruled out. The film's trailer promises strong performances from its main players as well as some serious makeup consideration for the way in which they visibly age Dicaprio (When it comes to the craft categories, obvious=oscar) If the film is the knockout I hope and think it could be then this could score nominations in the major categories of Picture, Director, Actor and Screenplay (As well as possible supporting nods for Dench and Hammer as well as crafts such as makeup, art direction, costume design and editing) On paper J. Edgar is a guarantee but we must wait and see if the critics receive it warmly (National Board of Review winner perhaps?) and the box office is solid enough to perhaps become an early front runner along with two other November releases.
Final Verdict: If the film is as good as the trailer makes it look then we could be looking at Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Art Direction, Costume and Makeup nominations. It already has two Hollywood darlings (Dicaprio and Eastwood), an Oscar friendly narrative and if it gets the critics and commerce as well then it ticks all the boxes, in short if its good its in, if its great its in BIG.
Final Verdict: If the film is as good as the trailer makes it look then we could be looking at Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Art Direction, Costume and Makeup nominations. It already has two Hollywood darlings (Dicaprio and Eastwood), an Oscar friendly narrative and if it gets the critics and commerce as well then it ticks all the boxes, in short if its good its in, if its great its in BIG.
The Descendants
This is a film which I initially thought would be overshadowed in the Oscar race by the Clooney directed "The Ides of March" however following the Telluride film festival it seems as if the opposite could happen. Directed by Alexander Payne (Sideways) The Descendants is being sold and hailed as a touching, funny human drama and apparently contains "The greatest performance of Clooney's career" This is a feel good film which I have heard nothing bad about, a film that has mainstream appeal in the form of Clooney, yet also a film that feels personal enough to garner large amounts of critical love and respect, this may be the art-house/mainstream feel-good crossover movie that hits big and becomes an alternative to the darkness of films such as The Ides of March (And potentially J. Edgar) However while that tonal appeal of the film may be under threat by films such as The Artist and The Help, it is a film which feels much smaller than any of the other films in contention. The Artist, The Help, War Horse, J. Edgar, The Ides of March are all big films which are either period pieces or have big casts or both. The Descendants may be the "smallest" of the nominees in that sense and therefore get that underdog tag that helped propel the likes of Slumdog Millionaire and The Hurt Locker to victory.
Final Verdict: Adapted Screenplay and George Clooney seem like two set nominations and even wins, while Picture seems to be another safe bet and Payne and Woodley could find themselves nominations in their respective categories if the film really hits it big with the Academy (Director and Supporting Actress)
Final Verdict: Adapted Screenplay and George Clooney seem like two set nominations and even wins, while Picture seems to be another safe bet and Payne and Woodley could find themselves nominations in their respective categories if the film really hits it big with the Academy (Director and Supporting Actress)
The Artist
The Artist was a film that took Cannes by storm and has gone on to charm festival audiences around the world with its throwback to black and white, silent filmmaking. It has Harvey Weinstein behind it and many are predicting it to be a major player this awards season. Hazanavicius could get a lot of respect from the directors branch for pulling this film off and Jean Dujardin won Best Actor at Cannes and some are even predicting him to pull of that feat again at the Oscars (I think however that Clooney vs. Dicaprio will be the main battle in that category) The film has the foreign, fresh, feel-good, underdog sense that Slumdog Millionaire had and if anybody can get it nominations it is Harvey. If it becomes a commercial hit then it really enters the serious conversation of who will win Best Picture but even with low box office this is a film which like The Descendants could ride its underdog, feel-good nature to a win. However The Artist has something that no other film in the race has, genuine uniqueness, there is no other film nominated like The Artist that helps it stand out and be remembered when they are casting their votes.
Final Verdict: Picture, Director, Actor and a ton of craft nominations are serious possibilities if this film can maintain the love and momentum behind it.
Final Verdict: Picture, Director, Actor and a ton of craft nominations are serious possibilities if this film can maintain the love and momentum behind it.
A Dangerous Method & Hugo
You have to mention films by Cronenberg and Scorsese even if I think they don't stand a chance in the Best Picture category. I saw A Dangerous Method at the Zurich Film Festival and found the acting to be the only element that elevated above being a standard, shallow costume drama that you would find on TV. It had three different possible story lines and never really decided which one it wanted to be about, leading to all three being undercooked. Keira Knightley could gain some support for her performance however I don't think the film emphasizes the change in her character as much at it could and should for her to get a nomination. The critics needed to force this film into contention and I feel like this film could be forgotten or only score one acting nomination and perhaps a craft or two (Costume, Art Direction) As far as Hugo goes it is a 3D family film and although I floated Tintin last month I just don't think Hugo is going to be loved by an older Academy plus the film didn't get any critical raves coming out of its sneak preview at the New York Film Festival. I also fear for Hugo's box office as it opens the same time as Arthur Christmas and The Muppets (Which will eat into its family/3D audience) and as The Artist and A Dangerous Method (Which will eat into the film/Martin Scorsese loving older art-house crowd)
November's Best Bets
Picture: The Artist, The Descendants and J. Edgar
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist) Alexander Payne (The Descendants) Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Actor: Leonardo Dicaprio (J. Edgar), George Clooney (The Descendants) & Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Original Screenplay: J. Edgar and The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar) & Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Art Direction, Costume, Editing: J. Edgar & The Artist
Makeup: J. Edgar
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist) Alexander Payne (The Descendants) Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Actor: Leonardo Dicaprio (J. Edgar), George Clooney (The Descendants) & Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Original Screenplay: J. Edgar and The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar) & Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Art Direction, Costume, Editing: J. Edgar & The Artist
Makeup: J. Edgar
What do you think? Agree? Disagree? Should I be considering My Week with Marilyn? Am I wrong about the awards potential of Hugo and A Dangerous Method? Am I overestimating the chances of J. Edgar, The Descendants and The Artist? Give us all your thoughts in the Your Say section.
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Picture Calendar: October
Welcome to the second installment of Best Picture Calendar, a monthly fixture over here at "The Campaign" which will preview the month's film offerings and their Best Picture (As well as other categories) chances. October is a month which sees the release of a George Clooney political drama, a Steven Spielberg technology pushing action/adventure and a Sundance thriller starring the third Olsen sister.
The Ides of March
Directed by George Clooney and starring Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Paul Giammati, Marisa Tomei, Evan Rachel Wood and the man himself, this is a film with one of the best casts of the year. The Ides of March is a politically based morality thriller which details one man's "coming of age" into the abyss of his profession. I got the chance to see this film at the Zurich Film Festival and you can read my review here. In terms of its Oscar chances the godfather of Oscar campaigning Harvey Weinstein recently said that he thinks this film is a strong horse in the race, plus having George Clooney both in front of and behind the camera is certainly helpful. Ryan Gosling gives a terrific performance and one worthy of a nomination, however given the crowded nature of this year's Best Actor field he may struggle to get one unless the film really takes off with the Academy. Out of the supporting cast it is Phillip Seymour Hoffman who I think has the best shot at a nomination while Evan Rachel Wood also has a chance in the supporting actress category. Both of those could get in if their category weakens (e.g. Hammer and Sydow don't impress and Brooks and Hill fall away or in Wood's case Coriolanus doesn't get the exposure it needs and Knightley's performance is dismissed as too showy) Adapted screenplay, editing and original score are all possible nominations for the film and I think Clooney has an outside chance in the Best Director category given that with the upcoming release of The Descendants, the Academy and the press will take their Clooney love into overdrive, with each film helping the other in the Oscar race. One worry is that the film's political content may sway off voters given that it is a possible reason Warner Brother's declined to back the film however the Oscar's are left leaning and the politics don't dominate the film as much as you think they would.
Final Verdict: Right now I have it predicted for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Original Score with Gosling, Hoffman and Wood all contenders in their respected categories. A SAG ensemble nod is highly likely.
Final Verdict: Right now I have it predicted for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Original Score with Gosling, Hoffman and Wood all contenders in their respected categories. A SAG ensemble nod is highly likely.
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Last year Winter's Bone was a Sundance hit which managed to receive Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, a leading actress nomination for up and comer Jennifer Lawrence and her star making performance, as well as a supporting actor nod for John Hawkes. Martha Marcy May Marlene is a Sundance hit, starring John Hawkes and showcasing a star making performance from up and comer Elizabeth Olsen, sounds familiar right? Martha Marcy May Marlene is being sold as psychological thriller about one woman's attempts to regain her life after fleeing from a cult. The film has been generating great buzz with the word out of the Sundance film festival being incredibly positive. Many including myself are tipping Olsen to get the Jennifer Lawrence nomination of this year for her performance which has garnered universal praise and seems to have an Oscar narrative given the family she comes from. John Hawkes has the potential to get a second consecutive Supporting Actor nomination for his role in the film which looks (If the film's promotional material is anything to go by) incredibly chilling yet charismatic. An original screenplay nod may also be in the cards for Sean Durkin as the film's premise seems to be one that writers would appreciate. Minister for Foreign Affairs Arnaud Trouve saw the film at Cannes and offers his opinions here.
Final Verdict: Original Screenplay and Best Actress are the two likeliest nominations for this film however if it goes on not just to be a critical but also commercial success when it is released later this month, then this could find a passionate audience within the Academy to propel it into the Best Picture category.
Final Verdict: Original Screenplay and Best Actress are the two likeliest nominations for this film however if it goes on not just to be a critical but also commercial success when it is released later this month, then this could find a passionate audience within the Academy to propel it into the Best Picture category.
The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
Produced by Peter Jackson (Oscar winning director of the Lord of the Rings trilogy) and directed by Steven Spielberg (Oscar winning director of films such as Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan) and starring Bafta winner Jamie Bell, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, Andy Serkis, Toby Jones and Daniel Craig the only thing stopping this film from being considered a serious Oscar prospect is the fact that it is called, "The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn" Admittedly of Spielberg's two films coming out this winter, Tintin is much more of a commercial play than War Horse (Even though that film may in fact make more money than Tintin, at least in the States) however Tintin is a film which has considerable pedigree behind it that Brits, Americans and Europeans can get behind (Yes Brits are Europeans however when considering Oscar voting Brits and Europeans are two separate voting blocs with different tastes and horses to back) Plus if Tintin gets good box office there is no reason it could not get in however that is more applicable under the ten. With the new 5% rule Tintin will most likely not get the Best Picture nod for one reason...motion capture. Yes Craig, Pegg, Frost and Bell are in the film but not as Craig, Pegg, Frost and Bell. Even though Spielberg, Cameron and Jackson are behind it, the Academy's ignorant fear regarding motion capture, plus the film's three dimensional and more child like nature will most likely overrule the pedigree that is behind it no matter how successful the film is. However, if eligible we may have our Best Animated Feature Film winner...
Final Verdict: Motion capture, 3D and target audience all count against this film being taken seriously as a Best Picture but the pedigree behind it and the lack of a critically and commercially successful Pixar film this year means that if eligible this may be be our Best Animated Film winner.
Final Verdict: Motion capture, 3D and target audience all count against this film being taken seriously as a Best Picture but the pedigree behind it and the lack of a critically and commercially successful Pixar film this year means that if eligible this may be be our Best Animated Film winner.
October's Best Bets
Best Picture: The Ides of March
Best Animated Feature Film: The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn (If eligible)
Best Director: George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Best Actress: Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Original Screenplay: Martha Marcy May Marlene
Adapted Screenplay: The Ides of March
Editing: The Ides of March
What do you think of this Best Picture Calendar? Do you agree with my thoughts about the above films? Or are there contenders coming out in October that I have missed? Have I over or under estimated any of the above films? Give us all your thoughts in the Your Say section. Be sure to check this site late October/early November for Best Picture Calendar: November and a Tintin review!
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Animated Feature Film: The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn (If eligible)
Best Director: George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Best Actress: Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Original Screenplay: Martha Marcy May Marlene
Adapted Screenplay: The Ides of March
Editing: The Ides of March
What do you think of this Best Picture Calendar? Do you agree with my thoughts about the above films? Or are there contenders coming out in October that I have missed? Have I over or under estimated any of the above films? Give us all your thoughts in the Your Say section. Be sure to check this site late October/early November for Best Picture Calendar: November and a Tintin review!
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Picture Calendar: September
Welcome to the first installment of Best Picture Calendar, a monthly fixture over here at "The Campaign" which will preview the upcoming month's film offerings, the ones that have the best shot at a Best Picture nomination that is. September is a very promising month on this front with one of my seven current Best Picture nominees being released.
50/50
Based on the writers own experiences, this drama/comedy starring Joseph Gordon - Levitt (Inception, Brick), Bryce Dallas Howard (Hereafter, The Help), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Angelica Huston (The Royal Tenenbaums) and Seth Rogen (Knocked Up) is about one mans personal battle to overcome cancer. Two trailers for the film have been released, one playing up the films dramatic side and the other proudly proclaiming in bold text "FROM THE GUYS WHO BROUGHT YOU SUPERBAD" early reviews have praised the films balance of comedy and drama and Joseph Gordon-Levitt seems to have given one of the, if not the performance of his career. This is a film that has had people of all ages and genders in tears and if it becomes a commercial hit then we could have a real contender on our hands. As of now I see a possible nomination for Levitt (However the Best Actor category seems tough this year) and a potential Original Screenplay nomination for Will Reiser (Which is perhaps the more likely nomination) if critics and audiences get behind it however, with its Oscar friendly premise and cast, 50/50 could be a surprise heavy hitter.
Final Verdict: Best Picture is a long shot but Levitt could get an Actor nomination if the film is a critical and commercial hit, while Reiser will hopefully have the respect (And more cynically the narrative) to get an Original Screenplay nod.
Final Verdict: Best Picture is a long shot but Levitt could get an Actor nomination if the film is a critical and commercial hit, while Reiser will hopefully have the respect (And more cynically the narrative) to get an Original Screenplay nod.
Contagion
Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) directs Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard, Gwyneth Paltrow, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law & John Hawkes...sounds like a big contender right? Contagion is a film about the spread of a deadly virus around the world and how it assumedly changes the lives of our protagonists and the shape of the world. This is a film that I am very much looking forward to, not only is the cast stellar but the tag-line "Nothing Spreads Like Fear" suggests that this film is a lot more about the psychological effects of the virus and the way in which it shakes society and civilization. The film seems to be much more of a commercial play and its story doesn't really scream Oscar. Plus while the cast is great, I doubt whether any of them can truly stand out amongst the crowd and stake a claim in any of the acting categories. Ultimately this is a film which I think will be successful but won't really play to the tastes of the Academy, won't have the passionate number one support to get the 5% and in the previews does not seem to have one truly stand out performer.
Final Verdict: Perhaps a SAG nod and some craft nominations but the unfriendly story in regards to Oscars (Which means a very friendly story for everyone else) may prevent it from getting that 5%
Final Verdict: Perhaps a SAG nod and some craft nominations but the unfriendly story in regards to Oscars (Which means a very friendly story for everyone else) may prevent it from getting that 5%
Moneyball
This is a film which I am currently predicting to get nominations in four of the major categories (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay) and for good reasons. With Brad Pitt, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jonah Hill in the cast, Moneyball is based on the true story of how the use of in depth statistics revolutionized the way in which baseball players were bought and judged. With this kind of true story, underdog, feel good narrative, the star power of Brad Pitt, the potential career changing performance from Jonah Hill and a script that Aaron Sorkin had a role in developing, Moneyball ticks all the boxes. The trailer was impressive and this is a film which could have commercial staying power. I feel that many are underestimating Moneyball and I could easily see it sneaking into the Best Picture field. Of course a lot of my presumptions will depend on how the film plays critically and commercially when it is released. Watch this space.
Final Verdict: If it is the film I think it could and should be then we could be seeing nominations for Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay. A potential sleeper hit at both the box office and within the Academy.
Final Verdict: If it is the film I think it could and should be then we could be seeing nominations for Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay. A potential sleeper hit at both the box office and within the Academy.
Warrior
Last year "The Fighter" scooped two Oscars for Supporting Actor (Christian Bale) and Supporting Actress (Melissa Leo) while also being a dark horse for Best Picture. This year "Warrior" seems to be keen to replicate the success of that film, with its trailer positioning it very much as this year's "The Fighter" Much of the early buzz surrounding the film has focused on the performances, in particular that of Nick Nolte (Who is now in my predictions for Best Supporting Actor) The film itself seems like the kind of family drama/feel good sports movie that could have snuck in under the ten if critical acclaim and strong box office accompanied it, however whether it can get the 5% it needs is debatable. Tom Hardy has also got his fair share of early buzz however the Best Actor category seems to be too tough and crowded for him to get a nomination, at least this year...he will win one day. Overall while Picture, Director and Screenplay nominations are highly unlikely, Nolte could sneak a Supporting Actor nomination and at this early stage be potentially challenging Plummer for the win.
Final Verdict: Could have got a Best Picture nomination under the ten and will need to be a BIG hit with the Academy to get in under the 5% however a supporting actor nomination for Nick Nolte seems to be the films best play at a big category nomination and even a win.
Final Verdict: Could have got a Best Picture nomination under the ten and will need to be a BIG hit with the Academy to get in under the 5% however a supporting actor nomination for Nick Nolte seems to be the films best play at a big category nomination and even a win.
September's Best Bets
Best Picture: Moneyball
Best Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Joseph Gordon - Levitt (50/50)
Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Best Original Screenplay: 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball
What do you think of this Best Picture Calendar? Do you agree with my thoughts on the Oscar potential of the above films? Are their films that I have unjustly left out? (I am aware that Drive is not listed above, that tells you what I think of its Oscar chances based on what I have seen/heard/read) Give us all your Oscar related thoughts in the Your Say section! Be sure to come back towards the end of September for a review of Contagion and Best Picture Calendar: October!
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton
Best Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Joseph Gordon - Levitt (50/50)
Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Best Original Screenplay: 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball
What do you think of this Best Picture Calendar? Do you agree with my thoughts on the Oscar potential of the above films? Are their films that I have unjustly left out? (I am aware that Drive is not listed above, that tells you what I think of its Oscar chances based on what I have seen/heard/read) Give us all your Oscar related thoughts in the Your Say section! Be sure to come back towards the end of September for a review of Contagion and Best Picture Calendar: October!
By Movie Parliament Prime Minister,
Michael Dalton